The Kenya Meteorological Department expects above-average rainfall over 80 per cent of the country in the October to December short rains, according to its outlook issued on 26 August 2026 and reported by K24 Digital. It describes the season as one of "prolonged wet spells and occasional isolated storms".
Counties with the highest likelihood of above-average rain include Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru, Kakamega, Mombasa and Garissa. Turkana, parts of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit are expected to see near-average to above-average rain. In western Kenya, the Rift Valley and the Lake Victoria Basin, including Nandi, Bungoma, Trans Nzoia, Kisumu and Kericho, rain is expected to be continuous from September into January 2027.
Onset is forecast for the second to fourth weeks of October in the Central Highlands, Nairobi and the south-eastern lowlands, with rain lasting into January 2027. In northern counties such as Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir and Isiolo, rain is expected from the second to third weeks of October and to stop by the second week of December.
The department says the 2026 El Niño is intensifying in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific. The weekly Niño 3.4 index was +2.7°C in mid-August, and Kenya Met says the event is moving toward a "very strong" one. The Indian Ocean Dipole, at +0.17°C on 23 August, was projected to turn positive in September. All counties are expected to be warmer than average, with the coast and eastern areas most likely to be warmest.
In a mid-September weekly forecast, reported by Dawan Africa, the Kenya Meteorological Service urged communities, businesses and counties to plan ahead of the season. Seasonal outlooks give probabilities, not guarantees, so farmers should follow Kenya Met's weekly and agrometeorological bulletins for local conditions.
Sources: K24 Digital; Dawan Africa